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Federal Surplus / Deficit
About This Indicator
What Is the Surplus or Deficit?
What the government collects minus what it spends, month by month since October 1980, from the Monthly Treasury Statement. Above zero is a surplus, below it a deficit.
Why Does It Matter?
A deficit is borrowed money: the Treasury sells bonds, and each borrowed dollar adds to the debt and future interest. In a recession, borrowing keeps federal spending going while households and businesses cut theirs; in good years, the Treasury competes with homebuyers and businesses for the same savings.
Can Politics Influence It?
Through tax and spending laws, but only in part: downturns cut receipts and raise benefit payments on their own, so the balance moves with the economy whoever governs.
Key Idea
One month says little: the budget usually runs a surplus in April, when tax returns are due; when the first of a month falls on a weekend, payments due that day go out the month before. The twelve-month total is the one to compare.
Not Scored
Source: Treasury; FRED (Treasury) before October 2013. Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 1, from October 2013; MTSDS133FMS before.
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