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Trade Balance to GDP
About This Indicator
What Is This?
The trade balance scaled to the size of the economy: exports minus imports as a share of GDP, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Above zero is a surplus, below it a deficit.
Why Does It Matter?
As a share of GDP the balance compares fairly across generations: a deficit of about 6% of GDP, as in 2005 and 2006, means the country spent about $106 for every $100 it produced and borrowed or sold assets abroad for the rest.
Can Politics Influence It?
More at the edges than at the core. Tariffs and trade agreements change what is traded, but the balance follows how much the country saves and invests, and the one large piece of saving Washington controls directly is its own budget.
Key Idea
The balance is roughly the gap between what the country saves and what it invests, so a policy that cuts imports without changing either tends to be offset by a stronger dollar or weaker exports.
Not Scored
Source: Computed here. Exports minus imports, from the two share-of-GDP series above.
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